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September month to begin on flat note for Sensex, Nifty

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The new month is likely to open on a flat note on Friday amid mixed global cues. Analysts expect consolidation phase to continue, amid strong GDP numbers. Gift Nifty city at 19400 indicates a flat opening as Nifty September futures closed at 19414 on Thursday.

Good performance of agriculture and financial sectors helped Indian economy to grow by 7.8 per cent in April-June quarter of fiscal year 2023-24 (Q1FY24), Statistics office reported on Thursday. Though the government is optimistic about momentum, experts do not agree.

Mr. Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director, Ladderup Wealth Management Pvt. Ltd, said“Though the GDP growth was lower than RBI expectations, India remains the fastest growing economy in the world at 7.8 per cent. We expect the growth to moderate further in the coming quarters due to the potential slowdown in capex because of the upcoming elections and the impact of El Nino on the monsoon and the slowdown in exports”

Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist & Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, India’s GDP growth in Q1 FY 24 at 7.8% was a tad below our expectations of 8%. This once again makes India the fastest growing major economy, a position the country is likely to maintain for several years. Yet, we do not expect this pace to continue for the rest of the year and see the yearly growth at 6.2%. But that too is a very good performance against the current global backdrop.

Nifty rollovers dip marginally

Nifty fell by 2.06 per cent during the August month expiry. According to Samco Securities, Nifty futures rollover stood at 77.9 per cent, which is significantly lower compared to last month’s expiry rollover of 83.95 per cent and its three months average of 79.61 per cent.

Nifty will start the September series with an open interest of 1.06 crore shares compared to an OI of 1.33 crore shares at the beginning of the August series. Nifty saw significantly lower rollover with a higher cost of carry (+0.90%) and a fall in open interest, compared to its previous month, indicating profit booking of long positions before the start of September Expiry.

INDIAVIX, known as the fear indicator, rose 14.75 per cent during the August month series, increasing from 10.51 to 12.06 levels, gave major discomfort to the bulls.

The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) Long Short ratio, too, fell from 53.67 per cent to 50.50 during the August Series Expiry, indicating that FPIs now marginally hold more long positions relative to short positions in Index Futures. The Put-Call Ratio, a sentiment indicator, however, fell from 1.33 from 0.70, indicating strong call writers’ strength., said Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives & Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities:

Analysts, expect FPIs to turn buyers once again, given the healthy macro-economic data. 





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